African governments urged to act on fertiliser shortages amid tensions

African governments are facing a critical challenge as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt fertiliser shipments, which are essential for food production. According to Martin Fregene and Chakib Jenane, the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is causing significant delays in global fertiliser trade, threatening the livelihoods of millions of farmers in sub-Saharan Africa. The authors note that approximately 80 percent of fertiliser used in this region is imported, often at inflated prices due to logistical challenges.

The situation is exacerbated by previous disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which have already driven fertiliser prices to record highs. The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that even a 10 percent reduction in fertiliser availability could lead to a 25 percent decrease in staple crops like maize, rice, and wheat, potentially triggering food inflation of up to 8 percent across the continent.

In response, the African Development Bank Group has initiated the $1.5 billion African Emergency Food Production Facility, which has supported nearly 16 million smallholder farmers with essential resources. However, the authors emphasize that African policymakers must take urgent action by strengthening market intelligence, coordinating regional procurement, expanding domestic production, protecting smallholder farmers, and supporting the Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Initiative.

The authors argue that the ability of African nations to navigate these fertiliser supply risks will depend on the speed and effectiveness of collaborative efforts among governments, regional organizations, and private sector partners. They highlight the importance of partnerships, such as the World Bank’s AgriConnect programme, which aims to enhance farmers' access to fertiliser and improve resilience against market fluctuations.

Power Read: The current crisis exposes Africa's heavy reliance on external fertiliser supplies, creating an opportunity for regional cooperation and domestic production expansion. Countries like Morocco and Nigeria could gain leverage by enhancing local manufacturing capabilities, while smallholder farmers remain vulnerable to price volatility without adequate support measures. The strategic play involves not only immediate responses to the crisis but also long-term investments in agricultural infrastructure and self-sufficiency.

What to watch: The upcoming planting season in 2026 will be critical for assessing how effectively African governments implement strategies to mitigate fertiliser supply risks.