Shipping in Strait of Hormuz stalls despite US-Iran ceasefire

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted despite a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran. According to ship tracking data, only five vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, down from 11 the previous day, and seven transited on Thursday. More than 600 vessels, including 325 tankers, are still stranded in the Gulf due to the blockage of the strait.

Ana Subasic, a trade risk analyst at Kpler, noted that while some vessel movement has resumed, traffic remains limited. "Compliant shipowners are likely to stay cautious, and safe transit capacity is expected to remain constrained at maximum 10–15 passages a day if the ceasefire holds," she stated. The strait typically carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, handling around 120-140 transits before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28.

US President Donald Trump accused Iran of failing to honor the ceasefire agreement, stating, "Iran is doing a very poor job, dishonorable some would say, of allowing Oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz." In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the US of not honoring the deal, emphasizing that the world is watching the situation unfold.

Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, CEO of the UAE’s ADNOC, highlighted that access to the strait is being "restricted, conditioned and controlled," asserting that Iran's actions indicate that passage is subject to political leverage rather than being a matter of free navigation. Following the ceasefire announcement, oil prices have begun to rise again, with Brent crude standing at $96.39 as of Friday morning.

Power Read: The current situation in the Strait of Hormuz illustrates a significant power struggle between the US and Iran, with both sides accusing each other of failing to uphold the ceasefire. The limited shipping traffic underscores Iran's leverage over maritime routes, as it can control oil supply flows, impacting global markets. Meanwhile, the US faces pressure to ensure safe passage through the strait, which is critical for global energy security. The ongoing tensions may lead to further escalations if either party perceives the other as not complying with the terms of the ceasefire.

What to watch: The upcoming actions of the US and Iran regarding the ceasefire agreement and maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will be crucial in determining the stability of global oil markets.