Trump claims Iran's leadership is fractured amid ongoing ceasefire negotiations

United States President Donald Trump described Iran’s leadership as "seriously fractured" while announcing an extension to a ceasefire this week. Trump stated that the ceasefire would allow more time for negotiations, implying that Iran's leadership is in disarray. He added that the US naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian ports would remain in place. Three weeks prior, Trump claimed the US military campaign had succeeded in forcing a change in Iran’s government, suggesting that the US was now dealing with "a whole new set of people" in charge.

On April 11, Iran sent a delegation led by parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to Pakistan to begin talks with the US. Observers noted that the ascension of Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader, indicates that hardline factions in Iran’s establishment have retained power. Khamenei has not been seen in public since his appointment but has been active in decision-making regarding the war. He warned the Iranian navy was prepared to inflict "new bitter defeats" on the US and Israel.

Ghalibaf, who has been leading negotiations with the US, expressed anger at Trump for "imposing a siege and violating the ceasefire". He stated that Iran is "prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield" if negotiations do not progress. Despite his willingness to engage, Ghalibaf faces criticism domestically, with some accusing him of "betrayal" for suggesting peace talks with the US are advancing.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which operates parallel to Iran’s military structure, has shown a willingness to act independently, attacking US military assets despite ongoing negotiations. Experts suggest that the IRGC's influence over Iran's negotiating team indicates a disconnect between diplomatic efforts and military actions. The IRGC has promised revenge for the killing of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and has conducted offensive operations against US and Israeli interests.

What to watch: The outcome of ongoing negotiations between Iran and the US, particularly in light of Ghalibaf's statements and the IRGC's military actions.